Illinois House Speaker Chris Welch has said he
thinks he can flip somewhere between four and six Republican-held House
districts to Democratic control, upping his super-majority to between 82 and 84
seats, from his current 78.
Which Republican districts are flippable? I talked
with a high-level source close to Welch’s caucus who pointed to the following
races.
• 47th House District – Rep. Amy
Grant, R-Wheaton, vs. Jackie Williamson. President Joe Biden won this district
by 12 percentage points four years ago. Every statewide Democratic candidate
won the district two years ago and Gov. JB Pritzker won it by 8 points.
Rep. Grant’s campaign had just $13,542 in the bank
at the end of June. She’s since reported raising a mere $10,000. Keep in mind
that the House Democrats have a vast and ever-growing fundraising advantage
over the House Republicans. So, the money that these Republican incumbents have
raised so far is much more important to understanding their predicaments. Grant
is a strong abortion rights opponent.
• 52nd House District – Rep.
Marty McLaughlin, R-Barrington Hills, vs. Maria Peterson. Peterson lost to
then-Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie by just a few hundred votes two
years ago. Biden won the 52nd by 6 points four years ago and all statewide
Democratic candidates took it in 2022.
McLaughlin is personally wealthy, but he reported
having just $100,000 on hand at the end of June and has reported raising $9,000
since then. He also has some labor support.
As with all of these districts, the Republicans’
anti-abortion stances will play a major role in the Democrats’ campaigns.
• 114th House District – Rep.
Kevin Schmidt, R-Cahokia Heights, vs. former Rep. LaToya Greenwood, D-East St.
Louis. Greenwood’s 2022 loss to the Donald Trump-supporting Schmidt shocked the
Black Caucus. Four years ago, President Joe Biden won the precincts in this
redrawn district by more than 7 points. Prior to that, no statewide Democrat
lost those precincts going back years. But the only statewide Dem who won the
district in 2022 was US Sen. Tammy Duckworth. The Republican Schmidt won it by
almost 6 points. The local NAACP and other Black leaders accused the House
Democrats of taking too many Black precincts away from Greenwood during the
remap and doling them out to neighboring White legislators. They ended up being
right, at least as far as 2022 went.
The party line is that Greenwood lost because Black
voters stayed home and Donald Trump voters surged to the polls. Democratic
presidential nominee Kamala Harris, the HDems believe, will bring their base
voters out in November. We’ll see.
• 104th House District – Rep.
Brandun Schweitzer, R-Danville, vs Jarrett Clem. Schweitzer was appointed to
replace Rep. Mike Marron. Biden won the 104th by almost 4 points, and four out
of six statewide Democrats carried the district two years ago (Kwame Raoul and
Alexi Giannoulias both lost by 2 points). This has usually been a pro-union,
pro-Republican region, but the tide may be changing after the remap and the
Democrat Clem has strong union support.
Rep. Schweitzer isn’t well known and the Democrats
think they can use their superior financial firepower to define him at will.
Schweitzer ended the quarter with $15,000 in the bank and has raised $21,000
since.
• 79th House District – Rep.
Jackie Haas, R-Bourbonnais, vs. Billy Morgan. Biden lost this district by a
point, and most Democrats lost the district in 2022, including Gov. Pritzker by
6. Even so, the House Democrats think they can pull this off, partly because
the district is pro-union.
Rep. Haas ended the quarter with $62,000 in the
bank and has reported raising $9,000 since then.
• 82nd House District – Rep. Nicole
La Ha Zwiercan, R-Homer Glen, vs. Suzanne Akhras. La Ha Zwiercan was appointed
to replace former House Republican Leader Jim Durkin. Trump won the district by
two points, and no statewide Democrats carried it in 2022. Darren Bailey beat
Gov. Pritzker by 3 points.
• 48th House District – Rep.
Jennifer Sanalitro, R-Hanover Park, vs. Maria Vesey. Biden won the district by
2.6 points and all statewide Democrats except Treasure Mike Frerichs carried
the 48th two years ago. The Democrats didn’t unearth photos of Sanalitro at the
January 6th “Stop the Steal” protests until very late in the game two years
ago, so they’ll put that issue at the forefront of their campaign. Sanalitro
insists that she wasn’t a protest participant. Sanalitro has been endorsed by
the Illinois AFL-CIO and the Workers’ Rights Amendment carried the district by
7 points two years ago.
Rep. Sanalitro ended the quarter with $69,000 and
has reported raising $28,000 since then.
